Einstein's definition of insanity, 'doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result'.

Sent from my iPhone

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Why I don't write linkedin recommendations

From time to time, I'm asked to write recommendations for people on LinkedIn.

I always say no.

My problem is that linkedIn recommendations are simply not credible like Amazon book recommendations. LinkedIn recommendations are always 100% positive!

Here's what you typically find:

Dan recommends Tom: "Tom is just the greatest, most amazing guy. Such a pleasure to work with, a true professional. Simply the best."

and of course,

Tom recommends Dan: "Dan is always right! Wink, wink. He's so smart and can solve any problem."

Sometimes it's funny to see mutual back-scratching recommendations like this side by side on someone's profile page, or even better: right after one-another in the news feed. As in, it took Tom about 30 seconds to reciprocate after Dan wrote his positive review.

LinkedIn recommendations are so universally positive that to find a negative one would make me think that the reviewer was a bitter, vindictive person, and certainly not a balanced, credible reviewer.

The truth is that a quality reference on any individual will involve more than just an 'x-star rating' or 50 word summary with lots of exclamation points. In my experience people have qualities which can be very positive or negative depending on surroundings, circumstance, colleagues, and other variables.

I'm more than happy to provide a reference for anyone I've worked with in the past, and promise to be as objective as possible in assessing that person's capabilities, character, experience, and growth during our collaboration. But I won't write fawning fanboy reviews on linkedin for people because I don't think it's helpful to anyone involved- it undermines the credibility of the reviewer, does a disservice to the reviewee, and wastes the time of the reader of the review.

 

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New Dating Site for Arabs/Muslims

My friend and former colleague Tom Dibaja is soft-launching his new project, an arab dating website called LoveHabibi.com. I'm no expert in the arab or muslim internet communities, but I do know they are both very large in numbers, very young in demographic, and with members all over the world. Why not a dating and friendship site for these communities? Sounds like a promising venture.

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Foreclosures in places I lived in America

I was raised in the US, and it's interesting to look at those cities through the lens of foreclosure markets. You can see that time has not treated the real estate values of the different cities the same way, as some aren't doing that badly and others are a catastrophe. The interesting thing is that I don't know anyone could have predicted how these cities' fortunes would evolve. Makes you wonder about where you currently live! check it out: depressed foreclosure real estate in detroit, mi more depressed foreclosure real estate in st. louis, mo but perky foreclosure homes in bethesda, md

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#greenshoots? more like #brownroots

Green shoots? Let's call them brown roots: trends that are definitively downward

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Robert Shiller: House prices will continue to drop for years

Robert Shiller in the New York Times today makes a case for Why Home Prices May Keep Falling. His argument centers on the idea that people decide to buy/sell/rent based on life factors which are years in the making and not very easily reversed. These can include major changes in life-stage (getting married, retirement), family considerations (job of spouse, continuity of kids' schooling), or psychology (caution or fear from long past experiences). The common message of Japan and the US in the 90's are cited:

After the bursting of the Japanese housing bubble in 1991, land prices in Japan’s major cities fell every single year for 15 consecutive years.
Even if there is a quick end to the recession, the housing market’s poor performance may linger. After the last home price boom, which ended about the time of the 1990-91 recession, home prices did not start moving upward, even incrementally, until 1997.
It's a simple message, but important to bear in mind. How would your decisions change in the next year if you could be reasonably certain that housing prices would not rise *at all* for the next 10 years?

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Scary: Latvia can't raise debt, 1/3 of school teachers fired

You think the California budget cuts are harsh? From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard yesterday:

Latvia has become the first EU country to face a sovereign debt crisis after failing to sell a single bill at a treasury auction worth $100m (£61m), prompting fears of a fresh storm in Eastern Europe as capital flight tests currency pegs.
If the US is finding it harder and more expensive to finance it's debt (just have a look at treasury yield curves this year), then what hope does a tiny, massively overleveraged country like Latvia have?
The finance ministry expects GDP to contract 18pc this year. House prices have fallen 50pc , the world’s most spectacular crash. A third of the country’s teachers are being fired and public salaries will be slashed by up to 35pc to meet bail-out terms imposed by the IMF and the European Commission. The policy risks a deflation spiral that defeats its own purpose.
Wow...stunning what is happening to these small countries. Will it stop with the Latvia's, Iceland's, and Ireland's, or are larger countries also at risk?

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The incredibly distorted Spanish housing market

An editorial today in Spain's largest newspaper, El Pais, argues that for the real estate market to recover faster prices need to drop faster. Let's put a few numbers in perspective. In 2007 roughly 800,000 homes were sold in Spain. In 2008, just 560,000. So far in 2009, it looks like there will be 300-350,000 sales. It's estimated that there are roughly 1.2 million homes unsold, on the market. This may or may not include a further estimated 400,000 homes which have been repossessed by Spanish banks due to foreclosure. What an incredible overhang of inventory on the market. At current sales rates, it would take 3-4 years to completely remove the unsold housing, without accounting for any additional supply in the market. One newspaper today went so far as to estimate that banks will need 10 years to clear out their foreclosed, or repossessed, properties. The only way for true market prices to re-emerge will be for these homes to be sold at whatever price people are willing to pay today for them, which is probably much, much lower than current asking prices. But there is no choice in going down this route- it's a case of severe pain now, or slow pain over time. The ability of buyers to pay 2007 prices are long gone, and not coming back anytime soon.

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I like the retweet

retweet is like a vote cast in public. its empowering to endorse content, and know that the things you like are being shared. previously you could vote on a site, but it didn´t mean your friends would see or benefit from the vote.

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on journalists

why read a newspaper? investment news from a top vc economic news from top economists startup news from former entrepreneurs these people will always crush a generalist reporter...their network and specialist knowledge their conflicts of interest are made transparent, much more so than say the economist- where you don´t even know the names of the writers! talk about no accountability!

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